Elections to the State assembly of Tamil Nadu are barely 7 months away. The State is going to face assembly elections for the first time without the stalwarts of TN politics who dominated for the last 5 decades. A national party, Congress, lost the election in 1967 under Shri Kamaraj and has since then played second fiddle to the local parties of TN – be it DMK or AIADMK, with partial success. This time is no exception. The BJP’s story is even worse. It has never been able to enter TN, branded as the North Indian (read as Aryan) party, dominated by upper caste Brahmins, speaking Sanskrit and Hindi. Even in the peak of Modi wave in 2014 and in 2019, it has not been able to make any impact in TN. 

Before the Lok Sabha Elections of 2014, the then CM J Jayalalithaa campaigned asking voters to choose between Modi and the ‘lady’ (she fancied her chances of becoming the PM in the face of a fractured mandate at the centre) and TN voters gave their overwhelming verdict: 37 out of 39 were the JJ Party’s men with just 1 seat to the BJP. 2019 was even worse. Despite Modi’s popularity riding high and both JJ and Karunanidhi passing away, the BJP could not muster a single seat. In another major sweep, 38 seats went to DMK alliance. It is not that people of TN rejected Modi. They predicted a fractured mandate wherein they wanted TN to play a powerful role by having its MPs from the same party who would lobby power for the state, as in the past. The parties did get lion share but with no leverage. 

Where did the nationalist parties, especially the BJP, go wrong in this highly literate and progressive state? It is not just Dravidian politics, as the repeated success of a Brahmin-led AIADMK proves. National parties have never played the local card in the state. Unlike other states, TN is strongly individualistic with Tamil pride and supremacy that has not been acknowledged by the Centre. 

Is there a chance for BJP in TN? What should be its entry strategy? Before we answer this, let us first analyze the root causes to the issue which by themselves will suggest the way forward:

1. TN has always been led by individual charisma – influenced by Cinema or otherwise. Kamaraj, Annadurai, MGR, Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha were popular figures, leaving aside their political ideologies. The BJP lacks such a grassroot leader who could sway the crowd. Modi has drawn crowds everywhere except in the Southern states, where his language barrier and absence of a local mass leader with people-connect proved to be the deterrent. With due respects, Ela Ganesan, H Raja and Thamizhisai were not the leaders who could capture the imagination of the voter. TN has always preferred decisive, individual leaders who could stand up on their own to the Centre. The leaders of the BJP, like Congress, were more connected to the Central leadership than to the common man. While the BJP has been known to develop local leadership, unfortunately it didn’t happen in TN.

2. Lack of organizational strength: Unlike in the western or northern states, RSS has a weak and limited presence in TN. RSS adds a lot of strength to its political wing – BJP, with its committed grassroot volunteers, who manage the booth and take the party to the voting public. Modi’s popularity could not be converted into votes due to poor organization strength. 

3. Fancy speeches and catchy slogans: Leaders win the heart of the voters by fancy and fiery speeches and slogans, an aspect where both the BJP and  Congress lack. A newly formed party like Naam Thamizhar has managed to get more than 4% vote share thanks to hard hitting speeches by Seeman, however absurd they may be. Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi J were masters of election campaigning, despite their health issues. Most popular and powerful slogans of BJP (Swachch Bharat or Beti bachao, Beti Padao..) do not cut into the hearts of Tamil speaking population. There is no popular local leader supported by a strong organization to take it to the voters in local lingo.

4. Party ideology: BJP has a strong narrative – Hindutva, Ram temple, right wing policies, cultural values etc. when it is on the home ground of Hindi speaking belt. Alas, BJP has failed to grasp the realities of TN and a narrative thereof. Horses for courses. The weakness stems from the fact that there is no home-grown leader. Ram is a non-issue. JJ and MGR have successfully cut across religious lines and demonstrated that they can link the voters without bringing in their religion. The BJP’s attempt to carve out Hindu votes through its popular narratives has had limited appeal.

5. Language identity: Tamils are proud of their language, more than any other language speaking Indian. Tamil is being considered to be on par if not superior to Sanskrit by Tamilians. Tamil language and culture are seen to be dominating an average Tamilian’s emotions. Unless this is stoked positively by the politician, he is not going to be swayed. Dravidian parties have exploited this to the hilt. Modi has understood this reality and has time and again exhibits his respect for Tamil and Tamilians. Playing host to world leaders at Mahabalipuram or quoting a Tamil poet in his speeches abroad are standing examples. He has won the heart of Tamilians but it is yet to translate to votes due to other reasons enumerated here and public perception of the BJP.

6. Stand on public issues: While parties like the DMK have been able to whip up public sentiments in its favor on various local issues (in a right way or not, is another issue), the BJP has largely remained silent on such issues. Examples are Jallikattu and Sterlite. The state BJP leaders lack clarity on the stand the party should take and brief the people. At times, it is the inability of the local leadership to effectively communicate a pro-reform policy of the Govt, such as the NEET, Agricultural reforms and the New Educational Policy with 3-language formula. Dravidian parties have always taken the lead, with anti-Govt views on such matters which finally seem to prevail.

It is obvious therefore that the remedial action consists of powerful narratives, strong and popular local leaders supported by effective party set-up and powerful communication to the masses. MGR as a popular leader used his fan base to throw out a corrupt DMK regime in 1977. Jayalalitha, emerging from the shadows of MGR in 1991, defeated DMK using the LTTE issue. The DMK used Rajinikanth to throw out AIADMK in 1996 on corruption issues. Let us see if there are any such opportunities for the BJP in 2021.

1. Powerful narrative: Having been viewed as the force behind the present AIADMK regime, the BJP does not have the platform of anti-corruption or anti-Dravidian rule in its run-up to the 2021 elections. Yet there are powerful ideas that can propel its launch in TN. These are:

Prohibition:

Like in most states, poor women in TN  suffer greatly from the liquor menace and it is seen as the greatest vice affecting their livelihood. Kamaraj and Rajaji, the earlier stalwarts of TN, were dead against it. MGR was in principle against liquor but caved in due to revenue pressure. A few other local leaders like Ramadoss advocate prohibition. Both the DMK and AIADMK remain silent due to vested interests. Both liquor manufacturing and distribution are run by their party men. One cannot expect them to dig their own graves.This is where BJP local leadership can take a very bold and aggressive stance of total prohibition. Liquor gives the state a significant annual revenue of Rs. 30,000 crores. This has always been touted as the strong reason in favor of liquor. If you flip the question slightly and ask as to how to compensate for the loss of revenue or as to how the state can reduce its expenditure, opportunities are aplenty. Selling TN Govt’s stake in TITAN (it holds 28% in this joint venture) alone will give Rs. 30,000 crores, enough to balance a year’s loss. There are many more such partnerships which will adequately compensate the state if the stakes are sold out. Since there is no loss of employment in such stake sales, there cannot be any resistance from the Union. TN is a prosperous state with a high GST earning. Curbing expenses and sale of assets should see it through the budgetary challenge due to prohibition. Announcement of total prohibition is a powerful tool that can kindle the imagination of people (50% of whom are affected women) and give the much-needed momentum and vitality to the party. The BJP’s national leadership need not take a national level stand to the issue, saying that it is the need of the state (like Gujarat) to take a local stand. 

Interlinking of rivers:

This is an emotive and economic issue of the land. Cauvery has always evoked powerful emotions – anger, frustration and concern to the people of TN. The delta region of Thanjavur is entirely dependent for its survival on Cauvery. The PM has done justice to the issue by having a Cauvery water tribunal that has pronounced a verdict in TN’s favor but the same has either been implemented partially or the message has not been taken to the masses. Going beyond Cauvery, the PM can announce and promise a scheme of interlinking of Rivers that can provide a perennial source of irrigation to the lands across the country. This is a powerful idea whose time has come. This is an essential infrastructural work that can generate employment and bring prosperity to lakhs of farmers. This is a cause that can endear popular leaders like Rajinikanth, Sadguru etc. it is a win-win formula.

Industrialization, development and employment:

Post Kamaraj days, Tamilians have felt that the state has fallen behind in industries. An alignment of the state and the Centre can help the cause of industries in the state. The BJP should boldly announce a quantum of investments that it can bring and employment it can generate. This should be part of the election manifesto.

Reformist face:

By now, people have seen the merit of holding NEET. The BJP should be on the front foot and present the reformist face – Agricultural reforms, Educational reforms (NEP), GST reforms etc. The 3-language formula should be boldly taken to the people in a well-articulated way. 

Temple management:

An indirect way of introducing Hindutva in TN is to empower people to manage their temples of worship. Unlike the North dominated by Ram and Shiv, people in TN have a wider following – Muruga, Iyyappa, Maariamman, Siddhar etc. with each sect having its strong identity. By promising to remove government interference and ownership of the temples, a long-standing prayer of the Hindus, the BJP would have played the right chords. There are over 38,000 temples under the control of TN Govt, besides innumerous village temples. This move will have a far-reaching effect. 

Tamil identity:

Besides the efforts by the PM, the Centre needs to highlight or promote Tamil identity. Grant to Keezhadi research, celebrating Tamil kings like Rajendra Chola or poets like Bharatiyar and Freedom Fighters would be seen as the positive steps.

 It is important that the above narratives are coined into powerful Tamil slogans that should form the backbone of the electioneering in May 2021.

 2. Popular local leadership: There cannot be a quick fix to a long-standing issue, yet there are emerging opportunities to address the weakness. In the absence of two veteran leaders, there is a political vacuum in the state. Many have claimed their rights to the position but without much credibility. One person who stands tall among them is Rajinikanth. He has announced his intention to join politics, fight TN Elections 2021 and introduce Spirituality based politics. To the BJP, it is a God-sent opportunity. The local BJP leadership should grab the spirituality theme (as a close substitute to Hindutva) and present this theme as guiding their political ambitions.  

The BJP should forge ties with Rajinikanth and project him as the leader and CM designate of the alliance, with a young and capable Annamalai as the Dy.CM candidate. This will have a powerful impact on the TN masses and force Media to follow suit. Having denounced power and at the age of 69, Rajini is loath to having a full-fledged party to fight elections and create his own identity. While he has a fan base, he lacks organizational structure or experience. He is a face, who like JJ and MGR, comes across as a truly secular leader. It would be a natural partnership if both the BJP and Rajini come together to form a spiritual alliance with the above narratives. Rajini lends popularity to the alliance while the BJP provides organizational, logistic and fund support to the movement. This could be the winning formula that people will overwhelmingly support. 

The alliance should be strengthened by having a tie-up with Vijaykanth, Ramadoss and other leaders who will add to the vote share and strengthen the organizational base at the grass root. An interesting observation is that like any other Indian state, caste plays an important role in TN. Vanniyar, Goundar, Devar, Nadar etc. are some prominent castes. Both MGR and JJ had the privilege of being outside these castes (in a way, a minority group) that worked well for them. Rajinikanth is not identified with any caste or religion and that should be his major advantage.

3.Communication: Powerful narrative and popular leaders are only as good as the organization which take the policies to the people. In essence, a strong momentum has to be created such that it captures the imagination of the voters and makes them perceive the party as the winnable one. People should start to believe that this alliance has the strength and wherewithal to form the Govt. Fortunately, the BJP has begun this exercise rather well by inducting several prominent personalities like Annamalai, Ravikumar, Kushboo, Saravanan, etc. with many more to follow. 

The BJP central leadership has also sent some of its organizational members with a South Indian orientation to spearhead its efforts in TN. As days advance, the BJP should continuously enroll high profile leaders with good communication abilities and use their talent to propagate its message. A puritan RSS or BJP follower may resent some of the new joinees but he should be convinced that it is in the best interest of the party and the state.

4. Media: This is the biggest hurdle to the entry of the BJP. Most Print and TV media are controlled or influenced by the DMK and other Dravidian affiliates. These have successfully projected an image of BJP as anti-Tamils so far. It will be a Herculean task to break these forces in a limited time. This is where the popularity of Rajini should help them. Realising such a possibility, of late, these media have started to discredit Rajinikanth but the mud has not stuck. The BJP should use its powerful speakers like Kushboo and Raghavan to counter the channels in the debates and use social media to a greater extent to fight the media bias. Nirmala Sitharaman, a Tamilian with a strong communication ability, should be roped in to take the message to the masses.

5. Counter to Dravidian issues: Dravidian parties such as the DMK, DK, VCK and MDMK have successfully tainted the BJP’s image. It is perceived as a party of Hindi-speaking, Brahminical set-up of Aryan race. The BJP has cleverly countered this challenge by appointing ‘sons of the soil’ to key positions now. But a lot more must be done to counter the image. Faces like Annamalai, Madan Ravichandran, Murugan (the party chief of TN BJP) must be projected more. Lord Muruga in place of Lord Rama, Vel in place of bow and arrow, equalized Tamil slogans must find their way into BJP’s TN campaign. Except for the PM, no Hindi-speaking BJP leader should be encouraged to campaign. 

The biggest opportunity to break the anti-national forces is now. Popular leaders are gone, local leaders are discredited, people have lost hope in them and are in search for a new leadership. Will the BJP fill the vacuum with its thoughtful, intelligent and smart approach? A true Tamilian wishes so. 

 

 

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