In the absence of two Dravidian stalwarts, will this Assembly election alter TN's political landscape?
Date : 04/05/2024
The Tamil Nadu Assembly polls always sees interesting combinations since the state politics is dominated by two Dravidian parties, the AIADMK and DMK. National parties like the BJP and Congress have very little say over the progress of events in state elections. The previous time Congress governed the state was in 1967. After that the two Dravidian parties governed the state alternatively. The leaders also did not change frequently. Until 2016, TN was led by four major icons: C N Annadurai and M Karunanidhi of DMK, and M G Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa of AIADMK. During this period O. Paneerselvam (OPS), a close confidante of Jayalalithaa, stepped up as chief minister for two short terms when she was forced to relinquish the throne due to her legal battles.
After Jayalalithaa passed away in 2016, OPS served as the chief minister for a few weeks and was replaced by the incumbent Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS). With Karunanidhi also passing away in 2018, the DMK has a new leader in Stalin after a whopping 49 years.
Traditionally TN had witnessed fierce rivalry between Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi for the major part of the last 30 years. The 2021 Assembly elections will be the first to be held in the absence of the two Dravidian stalwarts. In this context, the upcoming polls tend to throw up interesting combinations. Smaller parties would try to bargain harder and the BJP would also explore its options to increase its foothold in the state.
In TN history there has never been a coalition government. Parties do form pre-poll alliances but once the result is out, the Dravidian parties have never been interested to share the government with any of their partners. In 2006, the DMK ran a minority government with outside support from the Congress. This was possible since the Congress needed DMK MPs’ support to run the central government. The above Table shows the number of seats contested by major political parties in the last four Assembly elections from the beginning of this century.
The AIADMK:
The strike rate of the AIADMK has been high. It won 132 of the 140 seats (94.2%) it contested in 2001 and 150 of the 160 seats (93.75%) in 2011. The interesting point is, in both these elections, the party contested against an incumbent government. Since the people of Tamil Nadu mostly voted out the incumbent, the AIADMK was able to achieve high success rates. In 2006 the then ruling AIADMK government contested in 182 seats and won just 61. This was the first time when no party got a majority since the first polls were held in 1952. So, in 2016 then ruling AIADMK went it alone in 234 seats without any coalition and bucked the trend to win the election with 136 seats. However, this victory was aided by a third alliance against both the AIADMK and DMK consisting of the DMDK, VCK, MDMK, CPI and CPI (M).
The DMK:
The DMK never retained power in its history except during 1971. And that was before the formation of the AIADMK. In this century, when the DMK was the ruling party twice, it lost very heavily in 2001 and 2011. In 2001, DMK won only 31 of the 169 seats it contested and in 2011 it won just 23 of the 119. However, against an incumbent government it was able to achieve a higher win percentage winning 96 of the 129 seats it contested. Even in 2016 their performance was above par winning 89 of the 176 seats it contested but lost due to the poor performance of its ally Congress which won just 8 of the 41 seats. Also, the third front played spoiler to the DMK’s chances of coming to power with the AIADMK winning 52 seats with less than a margin of 10,000 votes.
The PMK:
When in coalition either with the AIADMK or DMK, the PMK will contest around 30 seats. However, in 2016 it tried their luck alone and drew a blank even in their bastions in North TN. Most of these 30 seats are limited to the region. If it contests on its own, the PMK is expected to play a spoiler to any one of the Dravidian parties and it does not benefit them too. It prefers a coalition with one of the Dravidian parties. Traditionally, it will begin the coalition talk with three main points:
- Demand 90 seats
- 20% reservation for Vanniyars (the caste it represents)
- Deputy CM post for their leader (Dr. Anbumani Ramadoss
But eventually it will settle for 30 seats. This is how it negotiates right from its inception.
The DMDK:
In the 2006 elections, the DMDK played spoilsport to the chances of AIADMK return to power by contesting alone in all the 234 seats. It won only one seat, but got around 8% of the vote share. In 2011, the DMDK joined the AIADMK alliance and it won 29 of the 41 seats it contested. However, in 2016 it headed the third front and contested in 104 seats and ended up losing deposit in 103 seats with 2.41% vote share. So, the DMDK prefers to be in a coalition with one of the Dravidian parties to stay relevant in TN politics.
Other smaller parties:
The same is applicable to the MDMK and Communist parties whose presence has drastically reduced in TN. Except for a few seats, they do not have influence. It is the same case with the VCK too.
The Congress:
The Congress was in alliance with the DMK for the past three Assembly elections and this is set to continue in 2021 too. Only in 2006 the national party won a significant number of seats. In the subsequent elections it was reduced to single figures (just 5 in 2011 and 8 in 2016). If it contests alone, it is not beneficial for the Congress nor any other parties. For example, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections it went alone and lost deposit in 38 of the 39 seats it contested. However, it was formidable when in coalition with DMK in Lok Sabha elections.
What might happen in 2021?
Let’s assume the alliance pattern is the same as 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The DMK coalition: The DMK, INC, VCK, MDMK, CPI, CPI(M) and some minor parties
The AIADMK coalition: The AIADMK, PMK, BJP, DMDK and some minor parties
The DMK coalition:
The Congress has 8 Lok Sabha MPs from TN. And from past experience, the Congress won’t settle for less than 35 seats in the 2021 Assembly elections. With the VCK, MDMK, CPI and CPI(M) all expecting at least 10 seats, the DMK can contest only from 160 seats. It would not want to take a bigger risk in the absence of Karunanidhi. So, there are open requests from them to both the MDMK and VCK to contest in the DMK symbol to ensure that the ‘rising sun’ contests in close to 180 seats at least. In this scenario, if this alliance continues, there is no place for new parties in their alliance. The only possibility is that if it leaves out the VCK, MDMK, CPI and CPI(M) there is place for either the PMK or DMDK in their alliance. However, with these two parties, it cannot force them to contest under the DMK symbol. So, barring any major reshuffle, the DMK will face the people with the same alliance from the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
AIADMK coalition:
The AIADMK has been the incumbent for 10 years now and with the demise of Jayalalithaa, it would want to contest in as many seats as possible to have any chance of retaining power. In this scenario, the PMK won’t settle for anything less than 30 seats and the DMDK will surely bargain for 30 seats. In this context, the ADMK is left with 174 seats and the BJP is likely to get around 10 to 15 seats. Even if the AIADMK oust the DMDK or PMK from their alliance, the parties are likely to contest alone rather than joining DMK alliance since there are not many free slots.
The BJP:
The only time the BJP contested the Assembly elections with Dravidian parties was in 2001 with the DMK, when it won 4 out of the 21 seats it contested. If it stays in the AIADMK alliance, in the best case scenario, it might get only 15 seats for contesting in their pocket boroughs in West Tamil Nadu and Kanyakumari district.
- If it contests along with the AIADMK, the short-term benefit for the BJP is that it might win a few constituencies. Barring any major poll outcome (like the AIADMK winning close to 105 seats out of 118 for a simple majority), the BJP’s role in the formation of a new government is absolutely very limited.
- If actor Rajinikanth forms a political party, the BJP can forge an alliance with him. In that coalition, it can contest in close to 40 seats and try to win the maximum for it to have any say in the formation of the new government.
- If Rajini does not start a party, and the BJP does not join hands with the AIADMK, it can go it alone with an eye on increasing their vote percentage. That’s a better route for them to gain a foothold in TN rather than looking to nail single digit seats with the AIADMK. In this case, it can ask for “Rajini voice” and try their luck.
- The last: No AIADMK nor ‘Rajini voice’. In this scenario, the BJP can contest on its own and project the Narendra Modi development story. Then, there is a possibility to increase their vote share. This will put them in a better position to bargain for a bigger share in the subsequent elections.
If it forges an alliance with the AIADMK at any cost, it is not going to get anything more than 15 to 20 seats. In this case, it can contest alone, this will help the party in the long run. The party also needs a news channel in Tamil to project their work. Most parties in TN have their own channels to showcase their policies. The BJP should either start a new channel or partner with any one of the available channels.
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