The recent incidents involving China has thrown up a lot of questions for which we don’t have any clear answers. Some of the questions are: Why does China ratchet up border tensions unprovoked? Why now? The ascent of President Xi has ushered in a behavioral change that’s aggressive and puts the Chinese slogan “Peaceful Rise” to shame. One cannot predict a nation’s intent by what it speaks through the media but only by its actual behavior. We must assess the latest India-China crisis in this light.

1950-53 Korean War

During this war the warring parties were arraigned in such a way that the only two nuclear powers were in opposite sides. Mao and Stalin were in good terms and Stalin was enthusiastic about communist China. USA and its allies in Europe were deeply suspicious about Communism and USSR. Likewise USSR and its allies in Europe too were suspicious about Capitalism and USA. The west suspected USSR due to its Comintern past, whose aim was to export communist revolutions to the world, though it was dissolved in 1943. USA just introduced in 1947 the European Reconstruction Plan (Marshall Plan) which USSR suspected to be a capitalistic tactic to attract its east European allies. China’s People’s Voluntary Army (PVA) and its Korean allies successfully used this split to restrict USA and its Korean allies at the 38th Parallel to midwife the birth of North Korea, another one party communist state. Till date only an armistice is signed between North and South Korea, a multi-party democracy, and tension simmers often.

The 1962 India-China Border War

Just like the 2020 Galwan crisis, China had attacked Galwan valley and retreated by July 15th  1962. But they came back in huge numbers by October 1962 and ended up occupying Aksai chin till date. It seems like a ground level tactic (tactical) to confuse the enemy into a false sense of relief. At the strategic level, the war coincided with the exact dates of the Cuban missile crisis where both the USSR & USA were intensely locked in a crisis regarding removal of Soviet missiles from Cuba. Both USA & USSR were not going to be distracted by a border skirmish between India & China. Both can’t lose China. So both can’t come to the rescue of India. Thus India was isolated. China was reasonably sure about its own capacities and Indian weaknesses too. At home Mao implemented the Great Leap Forward program (1958-62), which was a disaster and millions of Chinese died. He wanted to give the masses a reason to rejoice and a distraction from his own disastrous internal policies. There was an internal need for distraction and an external environment favoring China. The faceoff ended in a bloody nose for India.

The 1967 India-China Border War

The Sino-Soviet split was wide open by this time. USA was not yet a friendly nation as it was fighting the communists in Vietnam. Though both the then great powers were busy in Vietnam none of them were friendly towards China and USSR was firmly in support of India. China is the isolated nation now. In spite of this, China initiated this border conflict at Nathu La and Cho La of then Indian protectorate of Sikkim. India successfully repulsed the Chinese incursion and destroyed all structures erected by the Chinese. China did not return with overwhelming force as the external environment was not in its favor. Worse, it was in India’s favor. By 1975, Sikkim had acceded to India after a referendum and became a part of India which was later acknowledged by China.

The 1969 Sino-Soviet border skirmish

It started in the Zhenbao Island claimed by China at the Sino-Soviet border. A small patrol of Soviet soldiers were ambushed by a larger group of Chinese. This event lead to a series of skirmishes which ended in USSR using Grad rocket barrage to evict the Chinese from land occupied by them. Though China had numerical superiority, it lacked advanced defense technology and an international clout that would allow it to marshal allies against the Soviet Union. This border dispute wasn’t resolved until after the Soviet Union collapsed.

Non-participation in 1971 India-Pakistan war

Externally, China just had a bloody border conflict with USSR. American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had just visited China through the efforts of Pakistan and American President Nixon’s visit is scheduled. Talks regarding the entry of Peoples Republic of China into UNSC was also progressing. India supported PRC’s UNSC entry. Internally, Mao had initiated the Cultural Revolution in 1966 and was still steaming ahead. It was a very unpopular initiative. Peasants and industrial workers both became disillusioned. Defense Minister Lin Biao seemed to escape through air due to differences with Mao and died mysteriously inside Mongolia due to air crash. Lin Biao was a long time comrade since the civil war days and could have succeeded Mao. Many of the serving military commanders were his allies. So, during the Bangladesh independence war, though China wanted to help Pakistan, it was not sure of its own strength. China did verbally warn India but did not intervene. Moreover, USSR was in alliance with India and strategically the calculus didn’t seem to favor Chinese intervention. Soviet commitment to India can be understood from the fact that USSR sent nuclear submarines and warships to the Bay of Bengal to interdict the American war effort in support of Pakistan. USSR was firmly with India. Both the foreign and domestic environment, chiefly due to Lin Biao, was not favorable to China. China did not want to end up on the losing side which would make it look inferior to India.

The 1979 limited invasion of Vietnam

The one month war between China & Vietnam started with China invading the Northern part of Vietnam bordering China. The stated aim was to evict Vietnamese Occupation of Cambodia ruled by Khmer Rouge, supported by China. After one month of clash and capturing some northern towns of Vietnam, China quickly retreated saying the gates to Hanoi are open. But, Vietnam occupied Cambodia till 1989. China suffered more casualties than Vietnam. During this war USSR had military alliance with Vietnam. But, could not help beyond intelligence and material support. Mao died in 1976. Deng Xiaoping had internal troubles brewing in China within the party. He stationed 1.5 million troops in the Soviet border. China knew USA won’t come to the rescue of Vietnam as they just concluded a bloody one decade war. USA lost that war. Relationship between China and USA were now good. Relationship with USSR-China was in a pretty bad shape. China went for the kill underestimating the Vietnamese resolve and confident that Soviets won’t be able to help. As in 1962, China did not have the luxury of keeping both the great powers at bay. Most neutral analysts say China achieved none of the stated objectives. China did not win. Though the internal party situation warranted a distraction and the Soviets were worried with the situation developing in Iran and Afghanistan, the determination of the Vietnamese and the Soviet intelligence support was underestimated by Deng Xiaoping. There was an internal need for distraction and an external situation favoring China.

2020 India-China Border Skirmish

The transactional nature of President Trump coupled with his election promise to withdraw from costly wars has been playing out at throughout his presidency. But, America’s strategic retreat from the world with Russia’s increasing economic dependency on China has emboldened China to deduct both the preeminent powers won’t be in a position to rescue any other nation in a conflict with China. President Xi has cast himself in the mold of Mao and Deng. The domestic population need news to believe China is steered in the right direction by the present leadership and the world needs to be shown China has arrived. Communist China hasn’t encountered such unprecedented internal and external pressures simultaneously in its existence. A border conflict with India, an emerging strategic competitor, will achieve multiple aims. Besides reinforcing Xi’s position internally and China’s authority externally, it puts Modi’s nationalistic politics on the back foot, potentially harming BJP’s future electoral victories and a clear message that India is friendless against China. This also humors Pakistan and reinforces its belief in China. But USA rushed to the South China Sea two aircraft carrier groups and vociferously supported India. And most importantly, Russia preferred to maintain the peace and even convinced the warring parties to attend a pre scheduled RIC meeting. Besides these, the possibility that the Democratic Presidential candidate Joe Biden, the Vice President in Obama administration that favored Tran Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), could resurrect those ideas if he wins the election must have forced China to act well before November 2020 Presidential elections.

China behaves like a predator. It tries to isolate its target and then attacks with overwhelming force towards a very clear & limited objective. All of its wars were fought in lands bordering its country. All of them had a confluence of reasons which were both domestic and foreign. It is always scanning for an opportunity and when one emerges moves decisively towards its pre-planned objectives.

Mao had his war. When he had internal troubles and a perfect opportunity he used it to burnish his image both internally and externally. Deng had his war with Vietnam during some internal troubles brewing and USA being friendly with China. By now China had entered the UNSC (1972). Internal ‘gang of four’ were extinguished and Deng’s external image too was burnished.  Now Xi wants his war to distract the Chinese populace and announce to the world China has arrived. Russia is a close friend to China what with China honoring Vladimir Putin with ‘Friend of China’ and USA is in strategic retreat. If India had meekly acquiesced to Chinese aggression, China would have successfully sent a signal to the whole world that India is not a balancing power and put down any grumblings domestically for his aggrandizement of every available power structure within the party and state.

Russian Factor

Russia was sanctioned both by USA and Europe for annexing Crimea from Ukraine. Russian economy was in doldrums. From 32 Rubles against a US Dollar in 2013 it’s 75 Rubles/$ today. Coupled with the shale oil boom in USA which contributed to depressed oil prices brought the Russian economy under pressure. Russia signed an energy pipeline agreement with China worth $500 Billion over 30 years. Provided China with advanced weapons platforms like the Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems. Crucially, S-400’s are yet to reach India. Russia has embraced China to save its economy. Meanwhile, since Donald trump ascended Presidency in USA, it’s been a roller coaster ride for China. Labeling China a currency manipulator, igniting trade war, bringing up human rights issues regarding Xinjiang, supporting Hong Kong activists, blaming China as responsible for COVID-19, etc. put pressure on China and it’s leadership. Meanwhile, Mr.Trump was rolling back USA’s influence from the world by renegotiating NAFTA, asking NATO members to contribute more, just concluded a negotiation to pullout troops from Afghanistan, American presence in Syria was reduced, etc. This transactional nature of Mr.Trump seems to have led China to believe USA under Trump is wary of wars. The belief that Russia is firmly in its camp and USA under Trump does not have the appetite for a war in an election year allowed China to initiate a border conflict with India. A limited and successful border conflict would have signaled to the Chinese people and the world who dominates Asia and would have extinguished any resistance for BRI. But, USA rushed to the South China Sea two aircraft carrier groups and vociferously supported India. And most importantly, Russia preferred to maintain the peace and even convinced the warring parties to attend a pre scheduled RIC meeting. Looks like China has committed a Himalayan blunder. Expanding unrealistic claims in SCS and Trans Himalayas is for domestic audience.

Waits Its Time

China aspires great power status. But it cannot be achieved by expanding its territory alone. The real motive of the recent border conflict is to burnish the image of its leadership internally and the image of the nation internationally. The modus operandi is to present any hostile nation the choice of an economic carrot or military stick. The BRI is the biggest economic carrot China had offered India. Since India had refused this carrot China supposes to use the military stick.

When does China act? Whenever there is a split between the two great powers of the world, when neither of them would come to the rescue of the target nation then China sees that as an opportunity. Since Russia is now an ally and USA are in strategic retreat, China sees this as the perfect opportunity to achieve its motives. India must constantly watch out for great power dynamics and the internal pressures faced by Chinese leaders for they are the determinants for a conflict. The latest border skirmish isn’t over. China hasn’t arrived yet.

 

 

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