Climate change negotiations are well acknowledged to be an important part of Global Dialogue on Environment Policy. However, the topic of climate change covers a wide range of agenda crucial to a Nation outside of the environment too, like development and inclusive growth. At Global conferences, the conversations are led by individual countries vocalizing their individual priorities with respect to Climate change. These multilateral conversations address multiple issues directly and indirectly exceeding the ambit of environment policy.

Climate change policy and NDC’s

Among the Global conferences, the Paris agreement serves as the benchmark for climate relevant actions around the world. The scope of the Paris agreement covers nationally determined contributions for countries in order to achieve and meet climate change targets devised globally. The major target of the Paris agreement is to limit global rise in temperature within 2 and preferably 1.5°Celsius. India is one the 196 countries involved in the Paris agreement in the Conference of Parties-21 held at Paris [1]. Nationally determined contributions or NDC’s are ratified goals set per individual country in order to achieve the overall reduction of temperature by at least 1.5 degrees. As per greenhouse gas emissions, source of emissions and contributors, these contributions are seen as contributing towards achievement of reduction in global warming. In the case of India, a major source of achieving NDC’s is through its energy, transport, infrastructure, agriculture and so forth. Energy, transport and nature based solutions are discussed in the purview of this article.

Predominantly coal or thermal-based energy systems of India have been a major focus for NDCs and a pressure point towards the Climate pledge of 1.5°Celsius.  In the Covid scenario, the assumptions would be increased virtual climate action, reduced GHG emissions, reduced demand for thermal power base, and increased vulnerabilities related to livelihoods. However, this remains to be tested. In this article we are discussing the overall scenario developed for 2050 irrespective of Covid circumstances[2].

India’s sectoral pathways for NDC

Energy and transport

The responsibility of achieving NDCs falls primarily on the energy, infrastructure and transport sectors. The scenario sketch developed by TERI outlines the transition of coal based energy system to non-renewable sources with solar, wind and nuclear energy; hydrogen based transition in transport and aviation sector along with electric vehicles, efficient household technologies, removal of biomass for household cooking and using biofuel in energy mix for achieving NDCs by 2050. The scenario sketch is integrative of carbon emissions as well as solutions for carbon storage.

Critically, in the energy sector, phasing out coal from the electric grid and limiting it to heavy industry is an ambitious target. The electricity generation, production, transmission through coal based power plants and through state DISCOMS in itself is a minefield for policy gaps and requires attention. In addition to this, renewable integration, decentralized as well as centralized mode of production, efficiency, maintenance of alternative energy sources solar, wind and biofuels are to be proven, and requires technical as well as policy research.

A suggested measure in order to achieve the transport sector NDC target is to follow the concept of ‘Avoid- Shift-Improve’ wherein collective efforts have to be taken to reduce urban individual transport, domestic freight, and international freight.^[1] Following this approach could reduce transport GHG emissions by 20-30% of the baseline targets set in 2010. The majority of transport emissions are due to urban mobility; reducing urban mobility with efficient and accessible public transport, cycling or walking as norm.  Apart from this, it is essential to shift to efficient fuel technology, electrification of vehicles and use of improved technology such as Hydrogen as discussed before.^[2] The electrification of vehicles, off grid storage with Lithium ion batteries has witnessed growth [3]. The inclusion of hydrogen and other naturally compressed gas provides a futuristic scenario. However, the integration of hydrogen based transportation in and around 2035-2040 projection would be crucial to watch for when compared to thermal electricity and potentially electric based transport.

Nature-based solutions

The juxtaposition of nature based solutions with the transition to cleaner and greener fuel in the TERI sketch analysis [4] sheds light on the combined measures to achieve CO2 capture. The NDC targets cannot be achieved solely by energy and fuel sector reforms but could be strengthened by nature based solutions for 2050 scenario. In the TERI prediction model, nature based solutions would remove 0.9Gt of CO2 by 2045-2050. As results published in Nature bring forth, forests alone could account for 8.9 billion metric tons of CO2 globally [5]. 

Study by Cook-Patton et al, (2020) indicates an underestimation of forest growth potential for carbon capture by the IPCC VI assessment report. However, in India, in the span of a year 2020-21, we lost 132 Kha of natural forest accounting for 49.4 Mt of CO2 emissions which is more than half of the tree cover gained from 2001 to 2012. [6] Plantation of forest is in line with meeting the Bonn challenge as well by 2030 for planting 350 ha of forests globally. This is a stepping stone for climate change policy and NDCs.

In order to strengthen nature based solutions, we have to ensure that the development activities are aligned with the nature based growth activities. This calls for realistic targets as nature based solutions take time to produce results. This has to be achieved through measures stronger than mere flagship advertisement of green growth, and recovery especially with Covid-19.^[3] One possible way of achieving this is through increased community driven ownership and action. The question of powers and rights of the indigenous community or tribe for participation and involvement could be addressed through indigenous commons in forest areas.^[4] There are independent researches on the livelihood generation [7] ^[5]capacity linked to forest plantation and commons; this could very well be considered for assuaging fears of employment if the transition to greener and cleaner fuel sources is achieved by 2050.

 The livelihood component of the forest plantation would be inclusive of public participation in forest growth as well as nature based solutions. Overall, the importance of forest tree plantation to achieve net zero emission goals stands ground irrespective of the pace of transition to cleaner and greener fuel, and the temporal prediction model, which are bound to be updated with improved technical and policy information, consistent  forest plantation would ensure definite and quantifiable contribution towards achieving NDCs.

Youth participation in reworking the NDCs

In the current scheme of India’s NDCs the point of action has been to reduce emissions, reduce installed electricity capacity and increase forest based carbon sink. The targets are considered quite ambitious for 2030. Apart from the views of experts, the participation of youth in climate conversation as in COY which precedes COP is a sign of inclusivity of the younger population in climate deliberations. The commitment towards positive climate action is higher in the younger generation and thus crucial for global action towards achieving climate goals. Involvement of young minds would train them to participate, vocalize and share ideas on the provision of energy, the provision of transport, the provision of health, well-being and happy lifestyle, and promoting biodiversity and natural wealth of a country which are individually important priorities for a nation and are all considered, debated and researched for climate change negotiations. These are aligned with sustainable development goals for the environment as well as geopolitical considerations.  

In conclusion, climate policy research is dynamic to improve technological prowess particularly in the fuel sector. India, especially, as a coal rich country is striving continuously for a greater pace of transition to non-fossilized fuel sources. This means regular improvements to long term vision quite commonly observed in climate policy debate. Apart from the fuel discourse, the major takeaway from the TERI analysis is the integration of carbon sequestration measures through forest regeneration in parallel to the predicted GHG emissions, transition to greener and cleaner fuel sources.

Acknowledgement:

The author wishes to thank Dr. Sanskriti Menon, Programme Director Urban, Centre for Environment Education for her encouragement to write the piece and valuable inputs and Dr. Naveen B Ramu for reviewing the article.

References

[1] Paris Agreement- https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement

[2] TERI Shell report- https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/India_Transforming_to_a_net-zero_emissions_energy_system.pdf

[3] Centre plan one EV station per 69,000 petrol pumps https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/centre-plans-one-ev-charging-station-for-every-69-000-petrol-pumps-gadkari-41606185706029.html

[4] TERI SHELLreport- https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/India_Transforming_to_a_net-zero_emissions_energy_system.pdf

[5] Nature communications- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2686-x

[6] Global forest watch- https://www.globalforestwatch.org/

[7] Nature communications-https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-020-00814-9.pdf,

 

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• Environment : Sustainability, Different Meanings 65
• Energy Revolution65
• Sustainable Development65

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